"Development of Ukrainian National Security Strategic Planning and Forecasting System". Analytical note



30.06.2015

ABSTRACT

 

Authors of this note analyse the current state of the national security strategic forecasting and planning in Ukraine, foreign experience in this area and substantiate the necessity to establish a relevant unified state system in this country. They make proposals on ways to improve the relevant legal framework and to form methodological and organizational support for the introduction of the national security forecasting and planning system both at the national and at the departmental level.

 

Development of Ukrainian National Security Strategic Planning and Forecasting System

 

According to the National Security Strategy of Ukraine approved by the Decree of the President of Ukraine of 05.26.2015, № 287/2015, the ineffectiveness of the national security system was recognized as one of the greatest threats to the national security of Ukraine. The reasons for this were, in particular, immaturity of the security and defence sector as an integral functional association, controlled from a single centre; lack or inefficient use of resources, etc.

 

  The improvement of the state strategic planning system, establishment of the unified system of monitoring, analysis, forecasting and decision-making in national security and defence were identified as some of the state priority tasks to address this threat. Timely detection and prevention of threats to national security, determination of the crisis management procedures within the single complex of political, military, economic, informational and other measures are the goal of the system.

 

Appropriate comprehensive changes in the system of national security are also stipulated by the Decree of the President of Ukraine of January 5, 2015 № 5 "On the Strategy for Sustainable Development "Ukraine - 2020". In particular, an update of doctrinal and conceptual approaches to national security, functional optimization, establishment of an efficient state crisis response system are defined as some of the most important measures to reform the national security system.

 

The complex nature of modern threats and radical changes in the security environment also determine the necessity to establish a national security forecasting and planning system. Many new challenges faced by the individual, society and state, require the adoption of agreed common solutions based on constant operational interaction and clear coordination of efforts.

 

Establishment of such a system will provide:

timely and adequate response to real and potential threats to national security;

coordination of reform programs and development of defence industry as well as defence and security sector bodies and agencies according to a single plan;

the most efficient use of the security and defence subjects’ capabilities and resources for protection of national values ​​and realization of national interests;

effective coordination of the defence and security sector bodies and forces actions as well as functioning of a unified system of situation centres;

rational distribution of financial and material resources necessary for the effective functioning of the security and defence sector and the defence industry.

Formation of the forecasting and planning system in the national security requires improvement of the legal framework and organizational support at the national and departmental level.

Nowadays approaches to the development planning of the Ukrainian national security system and its key element - security and defence sector are largely obsolete and implemented inconsistently. This is due, in particular, to the fact that the relevant processes are governed by a number of current regulations that do not form a holistic system of strategic forecasting and planning and are not properly related to the budget process.

 

Currently, legal regulation in this area is carried out according to the laws of Ukraine "On the Fundamentals of National Security of Ukraine", "On the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine", "On State Forecasting and Elaboration of Ukraine's Economic and Social Development Programs", "On State Special Programs" and a number of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine resolutions.    

Herewith, there are no definitions of the forecasting, planning and development procedures for the state special programs in the field of national security either in two latter laws, or in relevant legal documents of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. The role and place of the National Security and Defence Council in these processes are not defined either.

At the same time, objectives, principles, content and procedures of defence planning and state authorities’ activities coordination in this area were legally normalized in 2004, when the Law of Ukraine "On Organization of Defence Planning" came into force.

 

As noted by experts (i.e. V.Askarov and S.Maslovskii), with the creation of the national system of defence planning in 2004 the process of the Ukrainian Armed Forces development has acquired a certain consistency. Measures taken to build up the national army corresponded to resource capabilities of the state to certain extent. However, some mistakes were inevitable when creating the defence planning system. That has reduced its effectiveness. In particular, the system appeared to be unprepared for the fast changes in the military-strategic situation around Ukraine.

 

Taking into account the necessity to solve these problems, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has adopted a new version of the law "On Organization of Defence Planning" on June 2 this year. According to its authors, the amendment will help to consolidate the implementation of programmatic- special purpose methods in defence planning (including budgeting) into practice, using an opportunities oriented method.

This approach is used in the defence planning process in developed countries, including the US, Canada, Australia and NATO. The term "opportunities" in the development of defence plans, for example in Australia, means achievement and maintaining of the desired effect in the particular environment for a certain period.

 

This planning model aims at ensuring adequacy, correlation and balance of security potential (capabilities) components. This capacity and potential building requires coordinated development of human and material components, doctrine, structure and training. This approach is implemented through the relevant government programs.

 

 So, the only one component of the security and defence sector forecasting and planning processes to be regulated by law in Ukraine today is the defence. However, there is a necessity to design and introduce a unified system of forecasting and planning of national security as a holistic functional association, controlled from a single centre, when implementing the provisions of the National Security Strategy of Ukraine concerning the security and defence sector development.

This system should cover the following main processes:

collection and analysis of information on a wide range of national security areas;

identification and assessment of risks and threats to national security;

assessment of the security and defence sector components functioning as well as the results of the previous period plans implementation and activities;

identification of trends and making short, medium and long term forecasts (scenarios) of the security sector developments;

development of strategic planning documents, including a security and defence sector progress plan; harmonization of those documents with the plans of the country’s socio-economic development and budget process;

risk management in the field of national security;

periodic amendments to strategic documents and plans of the state in national security.

The introduction of such approach will let to define the principles, objectives and main tasks of the state policy in the sphere of national security and defence, priorities and development directions of security and defence forces more clearly, taking into account existing threats and economic capabilities of the state.

The basic principle of the national security sector planning and forecasting should be the systematicity principle, which means that the security sector of Ukraine is considered as a single forecasting and planning object.

Such planned approach will facilitate the harmonization of the requirements for the structure of the security and defence sector bodies and agencies, their strength, financial and logistical support, development objectives priorities, etc.

In practice, this process should include the following main elements:

periodic reviews of the national security and defence sector which would define and refine the national security objectives, national security policy priorities and ways of their implementation;

organization of collaboration of state bodies, scientific institutions and NGOs within the framework of the newly created strategic planning and forecasting system;

conduct of regular national security threat assessment;

delineation and clarification of tasks, responsibilities and  structure of national security bodies and agencies;

transparent allocation of resources and control over their use.

It should be noted that today certain elements of forecasting and planning in the field of national security are only at the stage of formation. So, now, formation of the national security status indexes (indicators) continues (the corresponding task has been defined by the NSDC decision of 05.06.2015, subparagraph 7 of the paragraph 3, enacted by the Presidential Decree of 26.05.2015 № 287). Establishment of the unified system of monitoring, analysis, forecasting and decision-making in national security and defence is not completed yet also.

 

Introduction of the national security forecasting and planning system requires formation of a relevant legislative framework. In particular, correlated amendments to the laws "On the Fundamentals of National Security of Ukraine", "On the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine", "On State Special Programs", "On State Forecasting and Elaboration of Ukraine's Economic and Social Development Programs" and "Budget Code of Ukraine" should be made.

 

In particular, the relevant amendments to legislation should be aimed at identification and regulation of such aspects as:

- the task of strategic forecasting and planning;

- the planning process subjects (public authorities, their departments), their powers and interaction procedures;

- the list of planning and forecasting documents, developed at the national and departmental levels; their content requirements; development, scrutiny, coordination, approval and amendment procedures and frequency of revision;

- the list of activities which will be used to determine the results of the security and defence sector tasks accomplishment in the previous period; to formulate and specify goals, challenges, main directions of the state policy in the sphere of national security, objectives, procedures and terms of security and defence sector complex review;

- the national security threats monitoring and regular assessment, independent scrutiny of national security documents, information and submission of proposals for updating the national security planning documents;

- the national security and defence sector funding allocation procedure, as well as correlation of the sector development planning with the budget planning;

- the place of the national security strategic forecasting and planning in the national strategic planning process and state budget drafting;

- monitoring of the strategic planning documents implementation.

 

The national security strategic forecasting and planning should be based on:

- the President’s Annual Message to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine “On the Internal and External Situation of Ukraine”; the forecast of the state budget for two budget periods which follow the current one and the draft Budget Policy Guidelines for the next budget period are based on this message according to the Budget Code of Ukraine;

- the National Security Strategy of Ukraine, which is defined as binding document, according to the Law of Ukraine "On the Fundamentals of National Security of Ukraine", and the basis for development of specific programs for the national security policy components.

 

It is necessary to ensure correlation and mutual conformity of the National Security Strategy and the short and medium term forecasts of economic and social development of Ukraine, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine as well as to identify legally control procedures and responsibility for implementation of measures stipulated by the Strategy.

 

According to some experts (e. g. Academician V.Horbulin, Professor A.Kachynskii), the correct choice of National Security Strategy implementation policy makes it possible to concentrate efforts and resources on realisation of economic development potential and thus to ensure effective and safe development of all spheres of human, society and state activities.

 

A comprehensive review of security and defence sector should precede preparation of long-term planning documents. The results of the review and forecast financial indexes, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, are the basis for the Security and Defence Sector of Ukraine Strategic Bulletin. It is to be adopted by a decision of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine and approved by the President of Ukraine as a result of a comprehensive review. The comprehensive review procedures and its basic requirements are to be clearly regulated.

 

 It is necessary to make provisions for  comprehensive (time limited) review and consecutive organization of long-term planning not by temporary working groups, as it happens now but on regular basis by monitoring threats to national security, development of feasible situation forecasts (scenarios), identification of capabilities needed to perform scheduled tasks.

 

It is also important to ensure mutual correspondence of long-, medium- and short-term national security strategic planning documents and their close connection with the nationwide strategic planning process and drafting of the state budget.

 

Such correspondence can be achieved by developing a procedure for periodic amendment and clarification of separate medium- and long-term planning documents provisions, taking into account the annual results of security and defence sector forces and assets development as well as changes in security environment and real budgetary possibilities.

 

For this purpose random reviews of the Ukrainian security and defence sector individual components can be arranged. It is also advisable to limit duration of such reviews.

The national security and defence strategic planning documents should be approved only if the required financial support is available.

 

Given the complex and multi-layered nature of strategic planning and forecasting in the field of national security, it is necessary to introduce appropriate training and retraining of specialists in this field, provide for the establishment of relevant structural subdivisions within each subject of strategic planning and permanent inter-agency working groups, and involve representatives of scientific and research institutions in these processes.

 

But the main thing - is to ensure implementation of the strategic state documents, including government programs and strategic development plans in the area of ​​national security. According to some experts (e. g. Academician V.Horbulin, Professor A.Kachynskii), the changes process does not end with the adoption of strategic documents. Important issues remain unresolved without their effective implementation. Therefore, the implementation process should be seen as a continuation of the strategic changes cycle towards the ultimate goal - the settlement of national security problems, which primarily have induced the changes.

 

Conclusions.

1. There is no unified system of the national security strategic forecasting and planning that would be considering security and defence sector as a holistic object of forecasting and planning in Ukraine today.

Currently, planning of the only one component of the sector - defence is regulated by the law. The forecasting and planning procedures and principles of other components activities are not defined by the law. They are scattered, haphazard, and unrelated both among themselves and with the budgeting process and planning, and implementation of the state socio-economic development programs. 

 

The introduction of the unified system of strategic forecasting and planning in the area of ​​national security in Ukraine will provide for: timely and adequate response to real and potential threats to national security, efficient use of security and defence sector resources and forces, correlation with other types of national planning and forecasting, correspondence between the tasks priority in the field of national security and the actual amounts of their funding that are laid in a draft state budget of Ukraine, adequacy of the state strategic planning documents to the EU nations standards.

 

  2. Implementation of such a system needs improvement in the relevant legislation. Strategic forecasting and planning of national security should be based on the President’s Annual Message to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine “On the Internal and External Situation of Ukraine” and the National Security Strategy of Ukraine, and also take into account the results  of the security and defence sector comprehensive review. The process of the latter’s organization and conduct must also be law regulated.

 

3. It is necessary to ensure mutual correspondence of long-, medium- and short-term national security and defence strategic planning documents and their compliance with the nationwide strategic planning process and drafting of the state budget when establishing the unified national security and defence strategic forecasting and planning system. In particular, the security and defence sector development plan should be approved only if the required funding is available. 

 

4. Today certain elements of the national security forecasting and planning system are only at the establishment stage. This concerns, first of all, generation of the national security status indexes (indicators) and establishment of the unified system of monitoring, analysis, forecasting and decision-making in national security and defence.

 

Proposals.

1. In order to establish the unified system of strategic forecasting and planning in the area of ​​national security in Ukraine we believe that it is necessary to make amendments to some legal acts, namely:

- The Law of Ukraine "On the Fundamentals of National Security of Ukraine" should define:

the goals of the national security strategic forecasting and planning;

the procedures of implementation and monitoring of measures and actions stipulated by the National Security Strategy;

the sequence of actions within the unified national security and defence decision-making system;

the goal of the security and defence sector comprehensive review, the procedure and terms of its conduct;

the list of requirements to the content of the ​​national security strategic planning and forecasting documents, developed at the national and departmental levels, the procedure of their development, scrutiny, adapting, approval, correction;

- The Law of Ukraine "On the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine" should define the procedures of:

monitoring, analysis, and assessment of threats to national security;

information and submission of proposals for updating of the national security strategic planning documents;

monitoring implementation of strategic planning documents;

independent scrutiny of draft documents on national security;

- The Law of Ukraine "On State Forecasting and Elaboration of Ukraine's Economic and Social Development Programs" should define:

planning process subjects (agencies, departments);

place of national security strategic forecasting and planning in the national strategic planning process and drafting of the state budget;

powers of the national security strategic planning and forecasting subjects and their interaction procedures;

national security and defence sector funding allocation procedure, as well as correlation of the sector development planning with the budget planning;

- The Budget Code of Ukraine should detail provision which stipulates that the Main Goals and Objectives of Budget Policy are determined in accordance with the budget policy priorities prescribed in the Annual Message of the President of Ukraine. In particular, we propose: 

paragraph 1 of Article 33 of the Budget Code of Ukraine should read as follows: "The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, together with other central executive bodies, in accordance with the budget policy priorities prescribed in the Annual Message of the President of Ukraine to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine “On the Internal and External Situation of Ukraine”, the National Security Strategy of Ukraine and issued pursuant to them Acts of the President of Ukraine, as well as strategic objectives and priorities of the state policy in the sphere of national security, shall develop the Draft Main Goals and Objectives of Budget Policy for the Forthcoming Budget Period and shall submit it for the consideration of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine before March 20 of the year preceding the planned one".

- The Law of Ukraine "On State Special Programs" should stipulate development and approval procedures of the state special programs in the area of national security. Appropriate amendments are to be made to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine resolution of 31.01.2007 № 106 "On Approval of the Development and Implementation of State Special Programs Procedures".

In our mind it is advisable to develop and approve a Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine resolution on the approval of the national security strategic planning procedures, carried out by the central security and defence sector executive authorities, local administration and local governments, other subjects defined by law. The resolution should also define a mechanism and methodology of budget financing of such plans.

 

2. We think it is reasonable to form organizational support for the national security strategic planning as follows:

Short-, medium- and long-term strategic planning documents, including security and defence sector (as a holistic planning object) development plans are to be elaborated and approved at the national level (by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine). These documents are to be produced based on the objectives and priorities of the state policy in the sphere of national security specified in the Annual Message of the President of Ukraine to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the National Security Strategy of Ukraine, priorities of fiscal policy and socio-economic development objectives.

Development programs and plans of security and defence sector bodies and forces, as well as departmental strategies, proposals for cooperation with other sector’s bodies and forces within specific tasks, are to be developed at the state level. 

That is the way to provide a harmonious balance between national and institutional approaches to the development strategies of each defence and security sector subject and that of the sector in general.

Main development activities for the planned and subsequent years and the necessary resources to achieve target security and defence sector development indexes should be defined in a relevant development plan. Activities planned for the first year should be determined in detail and most accurately, and for subsequent years - the planned activities are to be periodically adjusted based on the results of the previous period plan accomplishment.

To this end an important task is to ensure timely implementation of planned targets in full. It is necessary to minimize the possibility of redistribution of financial resources in "manual" mode as a result of failing to achieve planned targets or because of delays in funding, since this is ground for abuse and corruption and in fact negates the effectiveness of any planning system.

A report is to be prepared annually as a result of implementation of the Security and Defence Sector Plan provisions. In particular, budgetary spending effectiveness is to be analysed. Such a report should be as open to the public, as possible (for the exception of that part, disclosure of which could pose a threat to national security).

Random reviews of the sector’s individual bodies and forces could be arranged in order to monitor the implementation of planned development targets and to obtain national security assessment in a given area. Comprehensive sectorial reviews could be arranged periodically. 

 

3. We consider that in order to increase the effectiveness of the sector’s development strategic planning the security and defence forecasting system is to be used, which will provide information on possible changes in the security environment and prospects and results of the security and defence sector development in the future.

Introduction of the national security status indexes (indicators) should play an important role in the development of forecasting system. That will help to rank actual and potential threats to national security in various fields as objectively as possible and allocate resources and capacities of the state properly to deal with them.  

The status assessment of the security and defence sector and its individual components, which is used in developing predictive situation scenarios and determination of the best option, is an important element in the process of forecasting system establishment.

At the same time it is necessary to ensure an integrated approach to strategic forecasting, which should take into account not only limited fiscal capacity of the state in a certain period, but the prospects of the country’s socio-economic development, multi-vector external influences on different areas of national security, the destructive effect of threats in case of failure to take timely preventive actions and counteractions.

Forecast scenarios, which are based on the analysis of the national security and the effectiveness of security and defence sector, are to provide, in particular, the crisis situations procedure which would combine political, military, economic, informational and other measures in a single complex. 

 

4. In our opinion, the functions of the organization of the strategic forecasting system, harmonization of strategic planning documents in the field of national security and provision of the state crisis response system operation, which involves coordination of the central executive bodies’ situational centres network, should be assigned to the National Security and Defence Council Staff. This requires appropriate specification of its functions, structure and objectives by making the necessary amendments to the regulatory framework.

 

5. After the introduction of the unified state national security forecasting and planning system we recommend:

National Academy of Public Administration under the President of Ukraine and other higher education institutions - to provide training and retraining of specialists in the relevant field of activity;

Central executive bodies that are involved in strategic planning - to provide for the establishment of relevant structural units;

Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine - to envisage the establishment of permanent interagency working groups for strategic planning at the national level and engage representatives of scientific and research institutions in the processes.

 

June 2015

The National Institute for Strategic Studies

 

 

Authors:

O.Reznikova, head of National Security Department, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Research Officer

V.Tsiukalo, Chief Specialist of National Security Department




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